US ECONOMY & POLITICS

US ECONOMY & POLITICS

A Record 4.4 Million Americans Quit Their Jobs in September – Bloomberg, 11/12/2021

• An unprecedented number of Americans quit their jobs in September, highlighting how persistent churn is undercutting employers’ efforts to fill a near-record level of vacancies.
• A record 4.4 million Americans quit their jobs in September, the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, showed Friday. Meanwhile, the number of available positions eased to 10.4 million.
• The quits rate, or the number of quits in the month as a percent of total employment, increased to 3% in September, also a record in data back to 2000.
• Total hires were little changed in September at 6.5 million, driven by strength in health care and social assistance. The hires rate was unchanged at 4.4%. Layoffs and discharges were little changed at 1.4 million.

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Drops to 10-Year Low on Inflation Fears – Bloomberg, 11/12/2021

• U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly collapsed in early November as Americans grew increasingly concerned about rising prices and the inflationary impact on their finances.
• The University of Michigan’s preliminary sentiment index decreased to 66.8 from 71.7 in October, data released Friday showed.
• The November figure trailed all projections in a Bloomberg survey of economists which called for an increase to 72.5.
• Consumers expect inflation to rise 4.9% over the next year, the highest since 2008, the report showed.
• They expect prices will rise 2.9% over the next five to 10 years, unchanged from the previous month.
• The Michigan figures showed a deep divide along partisan lines.
• Sentiment among Republicans plunged 17 points to the lowest on record while for Democrats respondents it slipped 5.3 points.
• The gauge of current conditions dropped to 73.2, the lowest since 2011.
• A measure of future expectations decreased to 62.8, which was the weakest since 2013, according to the survey.
• Twenty-four percent of households expect to be worse off in the coming year, the highest since June 2008, Richard Curtin, director of the survey, said in a statement.

Economists Boost U.S. Inflation Forecasts Through End of 2022 – Bloomberg, 11/12/2021

• Economists are ratcheting up their U.S. inflation forecasts through 2022 as supply chain constraints persist and price pressures broaden out to categories like shelter and energy.
• The consumer price index will rise 5.8% at the end of the fourth quarter from a year earlier, above the 5.5% estimated a month ago, according to the median forecast of 47 economists in Bloomberg’s latest monthly survey.
• Economists project that the personal consumption expenditures price index, the inflation gauge favored by the Federal Reserve, will also be higher than previously expected.
• The figure will likely rise 4.9% on an annual basis in the fourth quarter, revised from 4.6% in the previous survey.
• Estimates for economic growth were revised higher for every quarter of 2022, driven in part by expectations for more private investment and government spending. Those revisions come after Congress passed an infrastructure package that will allocate $550 billion of fresh spending for roads, bridges, public transit and other projects in coming years.
• Average hourly earnings are expected to be stronger than prior surveys showed, with the measure increasing by 4% annually in the final three months of 2022 after a 3.5% October estimate.
• That could be due to an expectation that labor shortages will persist next year, leading employers to continue to offer higher pay to attract workers.

Surging Inflation Poses New Challenge to Biden’s $2 Trillion Spending Plan – Wall Street Journal, 11/12/2021

• The highest inflation in three decades is posing a new challenge for President Biden as he seeks to enact another pillar of his economic agenda while also easing Americans’ concerns about rising consumer prices.
• The inflation has driven new Republican criticism of Democrats’ $2 trillion social-spending and climate plan, which the White House calls Build Back Better. House Democrats are aiming to wrap up the bill next week and send it to the Senate.
• Centrist Democrat Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, a pivotal vote, has raised concerns about the size of the proposal, citing in part its possible impact on inflation after a $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief bill earlier this year boosted household incomes.
• Democrats also have to limit defections in the House, where they have a narrow 221-213 majority. There, recent debate over the bill has focused on its immigration, tax and paid-leave provisions, as well as whether the spending is fully paid for with new revenue—rather than the possible inflation impact.

Renters Who Abandoned Their City Apartments During Covid Are Coming Home to a Crazy Leasing Market – Wall Street Journal, 11/12/2021

• Many large urban areas where rents cratered during the early months of the pandemic have now seen rents rebound to levels higher than they were before Covid, according to the Apartment List National Rent Report.
• In Seattle, for example, the median rent fell by 20.2% between March 2020 and January 2021, Apartment List found. The median rent in the city in October was 15.4% higher than October 2020 and 1% above its March 2020 level.
• In L.A., rents have increased 10.4% over the past year. Only a handful of large cities, such as San Francisco and Minneapolis, still have rents discounted from pre-pandemic levels, Apartment List found.

EUROPE & WORLD

Netherlands Set to Revive Covid-19 Restrictions Despite High Vaccination Rate – Wall Street Journal, 11/12/2021

• The Netherlands is set to reimpose curbs on public life, despite a high vaccination rate, after a steep rise in coronavirus cases raised concerns that hospitals could become overwhelmed.
• A spokesman said the government was planning three-week of further restrictions, to start this Saturday.
• Measures under consideration include the closure of all nonessential shops at 7 p.m., a ban on the public attending sports events and a return to social distancing in public.
• The Netherlands’ decision comes after the country recorded over 16,000 new cases Thursday, a record number and a steep increase from recent months, when daily cases plateaued at around 2,000. Over 73% of the Netherlands’ 17 million inhabitants have been fully vaccinated, according to the Our World In Data website.
• Germany’s federal government will meet with local leaders next week to discuss measures to slow down the record numbers of cases.
• Some regional governments have already reintroduced restrictions: Bavaria has declared a state of emergency, while Saxony is limiting access to restaurants and other indoor spaces to people who have been vaccinated or had the virus.
• In neighboring Austria, rules adopted in September will further restrict unvaccinated people’s access to public venues if Covid-19-related hospitalizations reach a given level. On current trends, this appears likely to happen within weeks.
• Employees in Austria are encouraged to work from home and can only go to work if they have been vaccinated, infected, or if they provide a negative test result.

Alibaba’s ‘Singles Day’ in China Hit by Global Supply Strains – Wall Street Journal, 11/12/2021

• China’s biggest shopping season is getting squeezed by the global supply-chain crunch.
• Alibaba said this year’s total sales hit a record high of 540.3 billion yuan, equivalent to about $84.5 billion, an 8.5% year-over-year growth.
• That was the slowest pace of growth since the e-commerce giant started the festival in 2009.
• JD.com reported record sales of 349.1 billion yuan, or about $54.6 billion.
• Two of China’s largest e-commerce platforms, Taobao and JD.com, show that delivery of the latest smartphone models from Apple and Huawei Technologies could take up to some four weeks.

Toshiba, Like GE, Plans to Split Into Three Units – Wall Street Journal, 11/12/2021

• Toshiba said it planned to split into three by March 2024 in response to shareholder pressure for a more-focused structure, following a similar path taken by fellow industrial conglomerate General Electric.
• Under the plan, one of the three units will focus on infrastructure and a second on electronic devices such as power semiconductors.
• The third, which will retain the Toshiba name, will manage the company’s stake in flash-memory company Kioxia Holdings and other assets.
• The Toshiba board’s strategy committee said it envisioned further asset disposals by the units and described extensive contacts with private-equity firms interested in buying parts of the company.

Factmonster – TODAY in HISTORY

• Leon Trotsky was expelled from the Communist Party and Joseph Stalin became the ruler of the Soviet Union. (1927)
• The World War II battle of Guadalcanal begins. (1942)
• Ellis Island stopped serving as the chief immigration station for the United States. Twenty million immigrants went through Ellis Island in its 62 years of operation. (1954)
• Akihito becomes emperor of Japan. (1990)