US ECONOMY & POLITICS

U.S. manufacturing near two-year high in October – ISM – Reuters, 11/2/20

• U.S. manufacturing activity accelerated in October, with new orders jumping to their highest level in nearly 17 years amid a shift in spending toward goods like motor vehicles as the COVID-19 pandemic drags on.
• The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday its index of national factory activity increased to a reading of 59.3 last month.
• The ISM’s forward-looking new orders sub-index surged to a reading of 67.9 last month, the highest reading since January 2004, from 60.2 in September.
• The ISM’s manufacturing employment gauge rose to a reading of 53.2 from 49.6 in September.

Construction spending rises less than expected in September – Reuters, 11/2/20

• U.S. construction spending increased less than expected in September as gains in investment in private-sector projects were partially offset by a decline in public outlays.
• The Commerce Department said on Monday that construction spending rose 0.3% in September.
• Construction spending increased 1.5% on a year-on-year basis.
• Data for August was revised down to show construction outlays advancing 0.8% instead of surging 1.4% as previously reported.

President Trump Trails Joe Biden by 10 Points Nationally in Final Days of Election – Wall Street Journal, 11/2/20

• President Trump trails by 10 percentage points among voters nationally in the final days of his re-election campaign, facing substantial public anxiety over the coronavirus pandemic but with broad approval of his management of the economy, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.
• However, the survey finds the race tightening when the landscape is narrowed to a set of 12 battleground states.
• Mr. Biden holds a 6-point lead across those states, 51% to 45%, compared with a 10-point lead last month.
• Some 41% of voters named the economy as the most important issue, while 38% cited coronavirus—a 3-point gap that narrowed from 8 points last month.
• And in a sign of substantial concern about the virus, 55% said the worst of the pandemic was yet to come.
• One of Mr. Trump’s strongest advantages is that 55% of voters approve of his handling of the economy, 14 points more than who disapprove.
• One of his top challenges is that 57% disapprove of his management of the pandemic, 17 points more than who approve.
• Mr. Trump’s hopes for an Electoral College majority turn in large measure on the fact that he is viewed more favorably in battleground states than among voters nationally.
• In the 12 state battlegrounds, for example, Mr. Trump leads by 21 points among white men, compared with a 12-point lead among that group nationally.
• Among seniors, Mr. Trump trails Mr. Biden by 11 points in battleground states, compared with the 23-point deficit nationally.

Control of U.S. Senate Centers Around a Handful of GOP-Held Seats – Wall Street Journal, 11/2/20

• Republicans and Democrats enter Election Day in a fight for control of the Senate, with key races tightening during a final push to turn out voters at the close of the chamber’s most expensive contests in history.
• Republicans are fighting to hang on to their majority, which now is a narrow 53-47 advantage.
• A total of 14 seats are now considered competitive, as record small-dollar donations have enabled Democrats to expand the map of close races from just 11 during the summer.
• Of the total, strategists have zeroed in on a handful of GOP-held seats in Maine, Iowa, North Carolina and Georgia as most likely to determine control of the Senate.
• Republicans concede that Sen. Cory Gardner will likely lose his seat in Colorado and are worried about Sen. Martha McSally’s seat in Arizona.
• Democrats expect to lose the Alabama seat held by Sen. Doug Jones.

U.S. judge weighs bid to void 127,000 votes cast at drive-through sites in Texas – Reuters, 11/2/20

• A federal judge in Texas will consider on Monday whether Houston officials should throw out about 127,000 votes already cast at drive-through voting sites in the Democratic-leaning area.
• U.S. District Judge Andrew Hanen is set to hear an emergency bid at 10:30 a.m. local time (16:30 GMT) by a Republican state legislator and others who accuse Harris County Clerk Chris Hollins, a Democrat, of exceeding his constitutional authority by allowing drive-through voting as an alternative during the coronavirus pandemic.
• Harris County, home to the city of Houston and about 4.7 million people, is the third most populous county in the United States.
• It currently has 10 drive-through polling sites, which are available to all voters.

EUROPE & WORLD

Factories Bounce Back as Consumers Snap Up Goods – Wall Street Journal, 11/2/20

• Factories in Asia and Europe bounced back strongly in October, with some patches of fresh hiring, as manufacturers ramped up production of goods in hot demand from consumers despite rising coronavirus infections.
• Eurozone factories also reported an acceleration in their recovery, led by Germany.
• Data firm IHS Markit said its manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the eurozone rose to 54.8 in October from 53.7 in September, reaching a 27-month high.
• In Asia, factories in Thailand and South Korea reported an increase in activity for the first month this year, which in the latter was aided by a first rise in export orders since January.
• In many countries, factories cut jobs in a sign that they are far from confident the recovery will continue into 2021. But there was also some fresh hiring after months of job cuts, with factories in China, Vietnam, Turkey, Spain, Italy and the Czech Republic reporting a rise in employment.

Ryanair boss looks beyond summer loss to post-pandemic growth – Reuters, 11/2/20

• Ryanair recorded its first loss for the key summer period in 30 years as a result of the coronavirus crisis, which threatens to cut passenger numbers to half pre-pandemic levels next year.
• Ryanair posted a 197 million euros ($230 million) loss in the six months to the end of September after COVID-19 restrictions cut traffic by 80% and Ryanair Chief Executive Michael O’Leary said a deeper loss was likely in the second half.
• That was down from a profit of 1.15 billion euros in the first half last year and represented Ryanair’s first loss in its key summer quarter since 1990.
• It was, however, less than the 244 million euro loss forecast in a company poll of analysts, while cash balances increased to 4.5 billion euros from 3.9 billion euros in the previous quarter.
• Plans to fly 40% of last year’s traffic levels in the winter might be pared back further, O’Leary said.
• But Ryanair is likely to outperform broader European traffic, which he said could fall as low as 25% of last year’s levels, and plans to fly 50% to 80% of its pre-pandemic capacity next summer, depending on how the crisis develops, he said.

Factmonster – TODAY in HISTORY

• Howard Hughes flew the Spruce Goose on its first and only flight. (1947)
• Harry S. Truman defeated Thomas E. Dewey to the surprise of pollsters and newspapers, in the greatest presidential upset in history. (1948)
• Jimmy Carter defeated Gerald Ford, becoming the first U.S. president from the deep South since the Civil War. (1976)