US ECONOMY & POLITICS

Retail Sales Rise, Showing Resilient U.S. Consumers – Wall Street Journal, 10/15/2021

• American consumers stepped up their spending in September, a sign of resilient demand and rising inflation.
• September retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.7% from the previous month, the Commerce Department said Friday, as households shrugged off supply constraints, the Delta variant and the end of enhanced unemployment benefits.
• The rise in sales also partly reflects higher consumer prices, which advanced 0.4% in September from August and 5.4% from a year earlier. The retail sales, which aren’t adjusted for inflation, rose 13.9% in September from a year earlier.
• August retail sales were revised up to 0.9% from 0.7%.
• Spending on autos and auto parts rose 0.5% last month even though auto sales fell in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 12.6 million from 18.8 million in April, according to a separate Commerce Department report.

Food, fuels lift U.S. import prices in September – Reuters, 10/15/2021

• U.S. import prices rebounded in September, lifted by higher food and energy costs, but underlying imported inflation showed signs of moderating.
• Import prices rose 0.4% last month after falling 0.3% in August, the Labor Department said on Friday.
• In the 12 months through September, prices shot up 9.2% after advancing 8.9% in August.
• Economists polled by Reuters had forecast import prices, which exclude tariffs, increasing 0.6%.
• Imported fuel prices increased 3.7% last month after declining 3.0% in August.
• Petroleum prices rebounded 3.9%, while the cost of imported food accelerated 1.3%.
• Excluding fuel and food, import prices dipped 0.1%.
• These so-called core import prices fell 0.1% in August and were up 4.7% on a year-on-year basis in September.
• The report also showed export prices nudged up 0.1% in September after rising 0.4% in August.
• Prices for agricultural exports fell 1.7%. Nonagricultural export prices gained 0.3%.
• Export prices rose 16.3% year-on-year in September after increasing 16.8% in August.

U.S. business inventories rise solidly, but auto stocks fall – Reuters, 10/15/2021

• U.S. business inventory accumulation increased solidly in August, though motor vehicle retailers continued to struggle to restock amid an ongoing global semiconductor shortage, which is forcing automobile manufacturers to cut production.
• Business inventories rose 0.6% after a similar gain in July, the Commerce Department said on Friday.
• Inventories are a key component of gross domestic product. August’s increase was in line with economists’ expectations.
• Inventories increased 7.4% on a year-on-year basis in August.
• Retail inventories gained 0.1% in August as estimated in an advance report published last month.
• That followed a 0.4% rise in July.
• Motor vehicle inventories dropped 1.4% instead of 1.5% as estimated last month.
• Retail inventories excluding autos, which go into the calculation of GDP, rose 0.6% as estimated last month.
• Business sales dipped 0.1% in August after increasing 0.5% in July.
• At August’s sales pace, it would take 1.26 months for businesses to clear shelves, up from 1.25 months in July.

Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Falls to Second-Lowest Since 2011 – Bloomberg, 10/15/2021

• U.S. consumer sentiment fell unexpectedly in early October to the second-lowest level since 2011, as Americans grew more concerned about both current conditions and the economic outlook.
• The University of Michigan’s preliminary sentiment index fell to 71.4 from 72.8 in September, data released Friday showed.
• The figure came in below the median 73.1 in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
• Consumers expect inflation to rise 4.8% over the next year, the highest since 2008, the report showed. Buying conditions were seen as less favorable, especially for vehicles.
• The gauge of current conditions fell to 77.9, the lowest since April 2020.
• A measure of future expectations declined to 67.2, according to the survey conducted Sept. 29 to Oct. 13.

Vulnerable U.S. homeowners face uncertainty as mortgage forbearance ends – Reuters, 10/15/2021

• Close to half a million low-income homeowners in the United States, many of them minorities, are nearing the end of mortgage forbearance plans that allowed them to halt loan payments during the pandemic, presenting a test for the mortgage service firms tasked with helping struggling borrowers move onto payment plans they can afford.
• While close to 80% of homeowners who entered programs at some point in the pandemic have since exited them, the remaining 20% tend to live in areas with higher shares of minorities, or have lower credit scores and lower incomes, research shows.
• Their missed payments could add up to a “forbearance overhang” of more than $15 billion in postponed mortgage payments, or about $14,200 per person, according to Brookings Institution research.
• Some 7.6 million borrowers have been in forbearance at some point during the pandemic, representing about 15% of all mortgage holders, and about 1.25 million borrowers were still in forbearance plans in mid-October, according to Black Knight, a mortgage technology and data provider.

Trading Furor Complicates White House Decisions on Fed Leadership – Wall Street Journal, 10/15/2021

• Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s chances for a second term leading the central bank so far have been dented but not derailed by a reputational crisis over stock-trading disclosures by senior officials.
• President Biden’s decision on who should lead the Fed when Mr. Powell’s term ends in February comes as economic data shows signs of broadening inflation pressures, which threaten to complicate coming decisions over unwinding monetary stimulus put in place to support the economy when the Covid-19 pandemic hit last year.
• For now, no Senate Democrats have publicly joined Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) after she ratcheted up her criticism of Mr. Powell’s leadership last week.
• People familiar with the administration’s deliberations said Ms. Warren’s attacks haven’t landed and that the trading imbroglio is viewed as unfortunate but not scandalous.

US reaches record high of more than 96,000 drug overdose deaths in a 12-month period, CDC data show – CNN, 10/15/2021

• Reported drug overdose deaths in the United States hit a new high of more than 96,000 in the 12-month period ending March 2021, according to data released Wednesday by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Health Statistics.
• In those 12 months — a period when Covid-19 pandemic took hold in the United States and shut down normal daily routines — the US saw 96,779 reported drug overdose deaths, an increase of 29.6% from March 2020 to March 2021.
• In the breakdown of CDC overdose death data by drug class, opioids accounted for the highest number of overdose deaths, followed by synthetic opioids excluding methadone. Methadone continued to see the lowest number of overdose deaths.

EUROPE & WORLD

Pandemic Disruptions Blamed for First Increase in Estimated Tuberculosis Deaths in More Than a Decade – Wall Street Journal, 10/15/2021

• Estimated deaths from tuberculosis—the deadliest infectious disease until the emergence of Covid-19—increased for the first time in more than a decade last year, the World Health Organization said Thursday, blaming severe disruptions in treatment and diagnosis caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
• Using statistical models to help compensate for gaps in testing for and reporting of tuberculosis, especially in developing countries, the United Nations’ health agency estimated that around 1.5 million people died last year of the disease.
• That is up from 1.4 million estimated TB deaths in 2019
• If the WHO’s tuberculosis tally is correct, 2020 marked the first increase in global TB deaths since 2005.

Italy Implements Tough Covid-19 Mandate for Workers, Prompting Protests – Wall Street Journal, 10/15/2021

• Italians returned to their workplaces Friday needing to show proof that they have received a Covid-19 vaccine, tested negative or recovered from the virus, a policy that has touched off protests and could provide a preview of a similar mandate planned by the Biden administration.
• In one of the toughest anti-Covid-19 regimes in the Western world, Italy will require all private and public sector workers to have a so-called green pass.
• The new requirement positions Italy, where 85% of people over the age of 12 have received at least one shot, as a test case for how hard Western countries can push their populations to get vaccinated.
• On Friday morning, there were large but peaceful protests at two of Italy’s most important ports, Trieste in the northeast and Genoa in the northwest. With supply chains already under strain around the world, the government has focused attention on workers at the ports and on truckers.
• During the early part of what some in Italy have dubbed “G-Day,” the ports continued to function. A group of people stood outside the port in Genoa chanting, “No green pass” and “Freedom.” In Trieste, about 15% of port workers don’t have the green pass, according to unions.

Toyota cuts November output but sticks to full-year goal – Reuters, 10/15/2021

• Toyota Motor on Friday cut its planned global output for November by as much as 15% due to ongoing chip shortages, but indicated it would ramp up production from December by sticking to its latest full-year production target.
• Japan’s leading carmaker said in a press release it would produce between 100,000 and 150,000 fewer vehicles in November than it had planned for a month that was meant see a rebound in lost output.
• That reduction comes after cuts in September and October as supplies of components from factories in Malaysia and Vietnam slowed because of increased COVID-19 infections there, forcing Toyota to trim its production target for the year to March 31 by 300,000 vehicles to 9 million.

Factmonster – TODAY in HISTORY

• With the support of President Wilson, the Clayton Antitrust Act, which made it illegal for companies to buy competitors’ stock, was passed. (1914)
• I Love Lucy, starring Lucille Ball and Desi Arnaz, had its television debut. (1951)
• It was announced that Nikita Khruschev was removed from his positions as premier and secretary of the Communist Party of the USSR. (1964)
• Clarence Thomas got a narrow (52–48) Senate confirmation of his nomination to the Supreme Court. (1991)
• China became the third country to launch a staffed space mission. (2003)